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Virus growth may be slowing | Job fears as furlough winds down | US debate rule change

Plus, how bad will Covid's second wave get?
   
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By Andrew McFarlane

 
 

Growth in Covid cases may be slowing

 
 
Women walk past a poster depicting a virus

The last fortnight has brought rising numbers of coronavirus cases, deaths and hospitalisations, more areas locked down and a government briefing warning the virus is not "under control". But there may be some comfort in Imperial College London's latest research, analysing samples from 84,000 people chosen at random from England. It suggests the virus's reproduction rate appears to have fallen since measures including the "rule of six" were introduced.

The team's previous report suggested infections were doubling every seven to eight days in late August and early September, prompting fears of 50,000 cases a day by mid-October. However, the latest analysis suggests the number of people to whom each infected person is passing on the virus - the "R number" - has fallen, on average, from 1.7 to around 1.1. Even so, the report suggests one in every 200 people is infected, prompting the lead researcher to warn: "This is a very critical period... you very quickly get to a very large number of cases." As the study tests people at random, not everyone who tests positive will go on to develop symptoms.

 
 
 

Job loss fears as furlough winds down

 
 

Employers face increased costs from today, as the government's contribution to furloughed workers' wages falls. It is also the deadline for some firms to issue redundancy notices before the furlough scheme ends on 31 October. And Labour warns almost three million employees of small businesses are at risk of losing their jobs. Its analysis suggests 133,055 SMEs - including many the hospitality and events sectors - cannot operate or are trading at reduced capacity because of coronavirus restrictions. Employers and workers have been telling us of their concerns. As Lisa, an events manager on furlough since March, puts it: "Work has all but vanished. We have gone through a consultation period for redundancies. I've just no idea what is going to happen." The government says taxpayer support continues to reach millions of companies and people.

 
 
 
 

Covid's second wave: how bad will it be?

 

It seems unavoidable the numbers being brought into hospital will continue to climb. This always happens for respiratory illnesses during this period. And the same, sadly, happens with deaths. Some winters are, of course, worse than others. December 2017 to March 2018 saw an extra 50,000 "winter deaths" in England and Wales - that is above what was being seen during the rest of the year.

When you compare it with the winters before, there were 15,000 more deaths. It was cold, there was a virulent strain of flu, and the vaccine that year was not particularly effective. Given there is a new virus circulating that has a disproportionate effect on the most frail in society, most expect this winter to be worse than that.

 
 
 
 
 
  Read full analysis >  
 
 
 
 

Nick Triggle

Health correspondent, BBC News

 
 
 
 
 

US debate rules to change

 
 

After the first televised US presidential debate was peppered with insults and interruptions, prompting dismay among many voters and disdain from the world's media, changes are afoot. The commission that oversees the debates says it will alter the format to ensure the remaining two encounters between Donald Trump and Joe Biden are more orderly. And reports in America suggest the candidates' microphones could be cut if they try to interrupt each other. 

 
 
 

What the papers say

 
 
Daily Mirror and Financial Times front pages

Boris Johnson has "put the British people on notice" that more coronavirus restrictions could be imposed soon as the number of cases continues to rise, says the Financial Times. The prime minister's comments came after Chancellor Rishi Sunak said it was time to live "without fear", with many Conservative MPs complaining that lockdowns are damaging the economy, notes the Daily Telegraph. However, the Daily Mail contrasts the PM's outlook with that of Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, who says "excess caution" is putting the economic rebound rebound at risk. According to the i, No 10 is considering simplifying lockdown rules with a "three-tier system", with ministers accepting current rules are "confusing". And the Daily Mirror pictures Mr Johnson's father in a London shop without a mask. "Stanley, in a high-risk group at 80, said he was 'maybe not 100% up to speed' with the rules," the paper reports. Read the review.

 
 
 

Daily digest

 
 
   

Biodiversity Why the nature crisis matters, in five graphics

 
   

Asylum seekers Claims could be processed on old ferries

 
   

Stock markets Technical glitch halts trading on Japan's exchanges

 
   

Google Pixel Phone 'designed for economic downturn'

 
 
 

If you watch one thing today

The In Memoriam beach artwork
The 150-bedsheet tribute to pandemic's victims
 
 
 
 

If you listen to one thing today

Out Of Our League logo
If your club's home is lost, can you ever get it back?
 
 
 
 

If you read one thing today

Denise Johnson flanked by George Clinton, left, and Primal Scream's Bobby Gillespie
Posthumous album finally puts singer centre stage
 
 
 
 

Need something different?

 
 

Herding whales might sound odd but that's exactly what will happen off Scotland's west coast in the coming days. British Divers Marine Life Rescue will attempt to move bottlenose whales from Gare Loch ahead of Europe's largest military exercise, amid fears they are losing weight and that sonar used by the warships could cause them distress. And you can read about the schoolboy, 15, who's set to become the youngest person to sail solo around Britain.

 
 
 

On this day

 
 
   

2009 The Supreme Court replaces the House of Lords as the UK’s highest court. Watch our archive report on the newly-appointed justices.

 
 
 

Let us know what you think of this newsletter by emailing bbcnewsdaily@bbc.co.uk. If you’d like to recommend it to a friend, forward this email. New subscribers can sign up here.

 
 
 
 
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