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| Growth in Covid cases may be slowing | | | | | | | | The last fortnight has brought rising numbers of coronavirus cases, deaths and hospitalisations, more areas locked down and a government briefing warning the virus is not "under control". But there may be some comfort in Imperial College London's latest research, analysing samples from 84,000 people chosen at random from England. It suggests the virus's reproduction rate appears to have fallen since measures including the "rule of six" were introduced. The team's previous report suggested infections were doubling every seven to eight days in late August and early September, prompting fears of 50,000 cases a day by mid-October. However, the latest analysis suggests the number of people to whom each infected person is passing on the virus - the "R number" - has fallen, on average, from 1.7 to around 1.1. Even so, the report suggests one in every 200 people is infected, prompting the lead researcher to warn: "This is a very critical period... you very quickly get to a very large number of cases." As the study tests people at random, not everyone who tests positive will go on to develop symptoms. | | | | |
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| Job loss fears as furlough winds down | | | | | | Employers face increased costs from today, as the government's contribution to furloughed workers' wages falls. It is also the deadline for some firms to issue redundancy notices before the furlough scheme ends on 31 October. And Labour warns almost three million employees of small businesses are at risk of losing their jobs. Its analysis suggests 133,055 SMEs - including many the hospitality and events sectors - cannot operate or are trading at reduced capacity because of coronavirus restrictions. Employers and workers have been telling us of their concerns. As Lisa, an events manager on furlough since March, puts it: "Work has all but vanished. We have gone through a consultation period for redundancies. I've just no idea what is going to happen." The government says taxpayer support continues to reach millions of companies and people. | | | | |
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| | | | | It seems unavoidable the numbers being brought into hospital will continue to climb. This always happens for respiratory illnesses during this period. And the same, sadly, happens with deaths. Some winters are, of course, worse than others. December 2017 to March 2018 saw an extra 50,000 "winter deaths" in England and Wales - that is above what was being seen during the rest of the year. When you compare it with the winters before, there were 15,000 more deaths. It was cold, there was a virulent strain of flu, and the vaccine that year was not particularly effective. Given there is a new virus circulating that has a disproportionate effect on the most frail in society, most expect this winter to be worse than that. | | | | | | | | Nick Triggle | Health correspondent, BBC News | | | | | | | | | | |
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| US debate rules to change | | | | | | After the first televised US presidential debate was peppered with insults and interruptions, prompting dismay among many voters and disdain from the world's media, changes are afoot. The commission that oversees the debates says it will alter the format to ensure the remaining two encounters between Donald Trump and Joe Biden are more orderly. And reports in America suggest the candidates' microphones could be cut if they try to interrupt each other. | | | | |
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| | | | Boris Johnson has "put the British people on notice" that more coronavirus restrictions could be imposed soon as the number of cases continues to rise, says the Financial Times. The prime minister's comments came after Chancellor Rishi Sunak said it was time to live "without fear", with many Conservative MPs complaining that lockdowns are damaging the economy, notes the Daily Telegraph. However, the Daily Mail contrasts the PM's outlook with that of Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, who says "excess caution" is putting the economic rebound rebound at risk. According to the i, No 10 is considering simplifying lockdown rules with a "three-tier system", with ministers accepting current rules are "confusing". And the Daily Mirror pictures Mr Johnson's father in a London shop without a mask. "Stanley, in a high-risk group at 80, said he was 'maybe not 100% up to speed' with the rules," the paper reports. Read the review. | | | | |
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| | | Biodiversity Why the nature crisis matters, in five graphics | | | | | | | Stock markets Technical glitch halts trading on Japan's exchanges | | | | | | | |
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| If you watch one thing today | | | | | | | |
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| If you listen to one thing today | | | | | | | |
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| If you read one thing today | | | | | | | |
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| Need something different? | | | | | |
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| | | 2009 The Supreme Court replaces the House of Lords as the UK’s highest court. Watch our archive report on the newly-appointed justices. | | | | | |
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